The men’s NCAA Tournament officially begins Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, when the first two games of the First Four get underway. Wagner and Howard are playing for the No. 16 seed in the West Region in the early slot and later on, Colorado State takes on Virginia for the No. 10 seed in the Midwest.

In the 2023 tournament, two First Four teams pulled off opening-round upsets after having to play their way into the Round of 64: No. 11 Pittsburgh beat No. 6 Iowa State and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson took down No. 1 Purdue.

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No. 16 Wagner Seahawks vs. No. 16 Howard Bisons

Game Info: 6:40 p.m. ET | truTV
Spread: Wagner +2.5 (-102) | Howard -2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: WAG (+128) | HOW (-154)
Total: 128.5 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)

Wagner and Howard both had losing records heading into their conference tournaments. The Seahawks rattled off three straight wins — all on the road, no less — to clinch the Northeast tournament title and their second NCAA Tournament appearance in program history. Similarly, the Bison, with their backs against the wall, won three straight in the Mid-Eastern Athletic tournament to punch their ticket to the Big Dance for the second straight year.

Wagner (16–15) is the lowest-ranked team in the field of 68 by KenPom (293) and NET rankings (290) and Howard (18–16) isn’t much better in KenPom (276) or NET (273). The winner of Tuesday’s game in Dayton will advance to the Round of 64 to play No. 1 North Carolina on Thursday.

The Seahawks have one of the lowest-scoring averages in DI at 63.5 points per game. They shoot just 39.2% from the field as a team and 32.2% from beyond the arc. The guard trio of Melvin Council Jr. (14.6 ppg), Tahron Allen (10.8 ppg) and Julian Brown (9.6 pgg) account for the bulk of Wagner’s offense. Allen stepped up in the NEC title game to score a game-high 22 points in the 54–47 win over Merrimack. The Seahawks boast the No. 6 scoring defense in the country (62.1 ppg), which can partially be attributed to their tempo, which is second-to-last nationally. As a result, the under is 19–10 in Wagner games this year.

The Bison have a very different team profile than their First Four foe. They average 75.1 points per game and get up and down the floor much quicker than the Seahawks. However, Howard is no tough out on defense, allowing 74.4 points per game. Accordingly, the over is 19–12–1 for the Bison this season. Their leading scorer is Bryce Harris (16.6 ppg), but they have other options that defenses need to respect, such as Seth Towns (14.2 ppg) and Marcus Dockery (13.7 ppg, 41.2% from three).

Though this is a low total for Howard, it’s in line with expectations for Wagner, which has seen the under hit in six straight games. The Seahawks don’t seem capable of taking advantage of a suspect Bison defense and they’re strong enough on defense to keep Howard’s offense in check. Notably, Wagner has a top-10 three-point defense (29.5%), which will come into play against a team like the Bison.

Bet: Under 128.5 (-105)